Desde diversos sectores –analistas, académicos, medios y estrategas– se plantea la inquietante posibilidad de una Tercera Guerra Mundial, evocando el fantasma de los grandes conflictos del siglo XX.
La guerra ha mutado, ya no se limita a trincheras ni invasiones masivas, sino que se manifiesta de manera constante, difusa y estructural.
En ese sentido, lo que muchos observadores interpretan como la antesala de un nuevo gran conflicto puede ser, en realidad, una fase más de lo que desde la era de George W. Bush se denominó “guerra perpetua”.
Esta idea cobró impulso tras los atentados del 11 de septiembre de 2001, cuando Estados Unidos redefinió su política exterior en función de enemigos difusos y frentes móviles.
Desde entonces, Washington ha estado involucrado en al menos 14 conflictos armados.
La llamada “guerra contra el terrorismo” en Afganistán e Irak fue solo el inicio de una nueva doctrina bélica donde los objetivos no siempre son geográficos, y donde la narrativa de seguridad reemplaza a la declaración formal de guerra.
A medida que avanzaba el siglo XXI, emergieron nuevos focos de conflicto: la anexión de Crimea por parte de Rusia en 2014, el inicio de la guerra comercial de EEUU con China en 2017 y, más recientemente, la breve pero simbólica “Guerra de los 12 días” contra Irán en 2025.
Todos estos episodios marcan un patrón: una creciente tensión entre potencias tradicionales y emergentes. Así, la hipótesis de una guerra perpetua se sostiene en la activación continua de nuevos frentes, lo cual responde a un fenómeno más profundo: el cambio en el equilibrio del poder global.
China y Rusia son hoy, sin ambigüedades, rivales estratégicos de Estados Unidos.
Esta competencia se da en múltiples dimensiones: económica, tecnológica, militar y geopolítica.
Occidente, liderado por Washington y acompañado por sus socios europeos, intenta frenar el ascenso de estos competidores a través de una estrategia que prioriza la contención.
En otras palabras, la meta no es conquistar territorios, sino impedir que otros los lideren.
Dimitri Trenin, miembro del Consejo de Política Exterior y de Defensa de Rusia, ha advertido que el objetivo occidental ya no es una derrota puntual de Moscú, sino su debilitamiento sostenido.
Rusia, junto con Irán, China y Corea del Norte, aparece en la narrativa de Washington y Londres como un enemigo sistémico, no circunstancial.
El regreso de Donald Trump a la Casa Blanca generó expectativas sobre una posible distensión, pero sus intentos por desactivar estos conflictos fueron bloqueados por sectores belicistas en Estados Unidos y por aliados europeos que, en muchos casos, parecen más comprometidos con el conflicto que con la diplomacia.
La élite global, en especial las facciones posnacionales vinculadas al poder financiero y tecnológico, teme perder el control de un sistema que les ha sido históricamente favorable.
Esta es la clave del diseño actual: construir un mundo crónicamente inseguro, inestable, plagado de amenazas e incertidumbre. Un mundo al borde del colapso económico, donde la guerra actúa como mecanismo de disuasión del desarrollo ajeno.
Este entorno beneficia al statu quo, frenando a potencias como China, cuyo crecimiento sostenido desafía la hegemonía occidental.
Los efectos de esta estrategia son visibles. El crecimiento del PIB mundial, que promediaba el 4,5% en la década del 2000, hoy ronda apenas el 2,5%.
El comercio internacional, que crecía a tasas del 6% anual, ha caído a la mitad. Y el caso más paradigmático es China, cuyo crecimiento económico —de entre 11% y 14% hace dos décadas— ha descendido a un 5%.
Este enlentecimiento no es casual es parte de una arquitectura pensada para prolongar el conflicto y sembrar caos e inseguridad.
A esta estrategia se suman las sanciones económicas. Ambas herramientas —guerra prolongada y sanciones— tienen el mismo propósito: desestabilizar.
Ya no se trata de ocupar territorios, sino de erosionar internamente a los adversarios. El nuevo campo de batalla es psicológico, social y económico. Se trata de provocar malestar civil, sabotear la producción, alimentar la disidencia y, eventualmente, fomentar el colapso interno.
Las sanciones, como señalamos en un artículo anterior, actúan como una forma de “genocidio económico”, donde las poblaciones pagan el precio de las ambiciones geopolíticas.
Este modelo es sostenido, en buena medida, por las grandes corporaciones tecnológicas, militares y financieras. Estas entidades no sólo influyen en las decisiones políticas, sino que a menudo las determinan.
El caso de Ucrania es ilustrativo: lejos de tratarse de una defensa desinteresada de la democracia, el conflicto es un desgaste de Rusia, un negocio para fabricantes de armas, contratistas de defensa y empresas energéticas.
La élite occidental, particularmente en Estados Unidos y Europa, sigue viendo a Rusia con desconfianza y hostilidad, y ha convertido el enfrentamiento en un fin en sí mismo.
En este escenario, el complejo militar-industrial-digital no solo sobrevive, sino que prospera.
Estas guerras no son improvisadas, sino diseñadas para beneficiar a quienes venden armas, tecnologías de vigilancia y servicios de inteligencia.
En muchos casos, las decisiones de guerra no pasan por los gobiernos, sino por los consejos de administración de estas corporaciones.
Guerra tridimensional
La guerra moderna es una guerra tridimensional: militar, mediática y psicológica.
La dimensión militar incorpora alta tecnología y precisión quirúrgica. Un ejemplo claro fue el conflicto entre Irán e Israel, donde por primera vez Irán lanzó un ataque directo desde su propio territorio.
El hecho de que sus misiles de largo alcance hayan penetrado el sistema de defensa israelí, la llamada «Cúpula de Hierro», representó un giro estratégico.
La respuesta de Israel —una mezcla de contraataques aéreos y ciberoperaciones— mostró tanto su capacidad técnica como sus debilidades inesperadas.
En el plano mediático, la guerra es una competencia por el control de la narrativa.
El caso Irán-Israel también fue pionero en lo que podría llamarse la primera “guerra de hashtags”.
La victoria no se mide solo en bajas o conquistas, sino en viralidad y percepción.
Los medios iraníes saturaron canales de Telegram con videos espectaculares de sus ataques, mientras que influencers israelíes convertían sus experiencias en refugios antiaéreos en actos de resistencia heroica.
Ambos bandos utilizaron ejércitos digitales, pero la novedad fue la participación activa de la ciudadanía: cada teléfono celular se convirtió en una cámara de guerra, transformando las redes sociales en frentes de batalla en tiempo real.
La guerra psicológica, quizás la más silenciosa, es también la más duradera.
En ciudades como Tel Aviv, el sonido de las sirenas erosionó la sensación de seguridad de la población.
Si Irán podía atacar a voluntad, ¿podía el Estado garantizar la protección de sus ciudadanos?
La ruptura del tabú de un ataque directo entre enemigos tradicionales tuvo un fuerte impacto en toda Asia Occidental. Países como Arabia Saudita o Turquía observaban con atención, sabiendo que el equilibrio regional había cambiado.
Estas tres dimensiones —militar, mediática y psicológica— se combinan en la llamada guerra híbrida, donde cada misil puede ser al mismo tiempo una acción bélica, un mensaje mediático y un golpe al ánimo de la sociedad.
Quien logre dominar estos tres planos tendrá la ventaja decisiva en los conflictos del futuro.
Pero para ello, es indispensable la colaboración del complejo militar-industrial-tecnológico.
Corporaciones como Google (Alphabet), Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft y Palantir no son solo actores económicos, son herramientas de guerra. Controlan la información, moderan el discurso público, gestionan plataformas de comunicación e imponen narrativas.
A través del manejo de datos masivos, se convierten en fuentes privilegiadas de inteligencia, útiles tanto para gobiernos como para empresas.
Estas grandes tecnológicas también proporcionan la infraestructura crítica sobre la que se apoyan tanto las economías como los sistemas de defensa. Su liderazgo en inteligencia artificial, computación cuántica y biotecnología les otorga un rol protagónico en la configuración del poder global.
Ya no son simplemente compañías privadas: son actores geopolíticos de primer orden.
Por otro lado, el complejo militar-industrial representado por gigantes como Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing o Northrop Grumman sigue promoviendo la expansión de presupuestos de defensa.
Justifican sus exigencias en función de amenazas externas, pero en muchos casos actúan como generadores de esas amenazas. Las guerras prolongadas y las tensiones permanentes son parte del negocio.
Estos contratistas también impulsan agresivamente la venta de armas a países aliados, fortaleciendo los vínculos militares de Occidente y expandiendo su influencia global.
Las alianzas no se basan tanto en valores compartidos como en intereses comerciales.
La ciberseguridad, la vigilancia digital y la inteligencia artificial se convierten en armas de guerra tanto como los misiles y los tanques.
En suma, el “Estado profundo” ya no es un mito.
Está compuesto por una red de intereses corporativos —tecnológicos, militares y financieros— que opera más allá de los ciclos electorales y de la voluntad popular.
Su influencia es indirecta pero eficaz.
Frente al ascenso de potencias como China, Rusia e Irán, estas corporaciones actúan para mantener el dominio occidental, muchas veces desde las sombras, aunque su accionar sea visible para quien se tome el tiempo de mirar.
Así, la guerra eterna no es un accidente histórico, sino un diseño funcional. Es un negocio. Un sistema que produce ganadores: las élites que venden armas controlan datos, gestionan el miedo y sacan provecho del desorden.
(*) Economista, director ejecutivo del blog El Tábano Economista.
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