La XVI Cumbre del BRICS, que se celebrará en Kazán del 22 al 24 de octubre de 2024, marca un punto de inflexión en la reconfiguración del orden geopolítico global.
Con la participación de representantes de casi 40 países en el formato BRICS Plus/Outreach, el evento refleja la creciente relevancia de este foro internacional, que ha evolucionado de ser un grupo económico a una plataforma clave en la configuración de las futuras alianzas globales.
Bajo el lema «Fortalecer el multilateralismo para el desarrollo y la seguridad globales equitativos», esta cumbre resalta el peso de los BRICS como un pilar en la transición hacia un mundo multipolar.
El contexto de esta cumbre no podría ser más significativo. En un momento en el que Occidente, encabezado por Estados Unidos, enfrenta desafíos en su capacidad para mantener su hegemonía, la consolidación del BRICS y su posible expansión emerge como una alternativa viable al actual sistema internacional.
La cumbre de Kazán, más allá de los debates sobre temas económicos, financieros y de seguridad, simboliza el ascenso de un bloque que podría reconfigurar el panorama geopolítico para los próximos 25 años.
La Expansión de los BRICS y el Multipolarismo Global
Uno de los aspectos más esperados de la cumbre en Kazán es la discusión sobre la posible expansión del bloque BRICS, mediante la creación de una nueva categoría de «estados socios». Esta ampliación refleja no solo el éxito del grupo, sino también su capacidad para atraer a países que buscan nuevas oportunidades de desarrollo económico y alianzas estratégicas fuera del dominio occidental.
Esta expansión tiene un gran simbolismo geopolítico, ya que indica el creciente atractivo de los BRICS para economías emergentes que buscan alternativas viables al actual orden internacional liderado por Occidente.
La entrada de nuevos países podría consolidar a los BRICS como una fuerza capaz de transformar el equilibrio de poder global. Esta expansión ofrecería una plataforma sólida para que países de diversos continentes colaboren en áreas críticas como la economía, el comercio, la seguridad y la diplomacia.
Para Rusia, que ostenta la presidencia del BRICS en 2024, este proceso de ampliación representa una oportunidad clave para reafirmar su posición como un actor internacional influyente, desafiando los esfuerzos occidentales de aislarla política y económicamente.
El interés de los países en desarrollo por unirse a los BRICS refleja su deseo de escapar de la dependencia económica y política de Occidente, que históricamente ha dictado las reglas del sistema financiero internacional a través de instituciones como el FMI y el Banco Mundial.
Los BRICS, a través de su Nuevo Banco de Desarrollo, buscan establecer una alternativa que permita a las economías emergentes acceder a financiamiento sin las condiciones de austeridad impuestas por estas instituciones. Este movimiento hacia una mayor autonomía económica es crucial para los países que desean diversificar sus alianzas y fortalecer su soberanía frente a las presiones externas.
BRICS Plus/Outreach
La inclusión de casi 40 países en el formato BRICS Plus/Outreach durante el último día de la cumbre es un claro indicio de que este foro ha trascendido su concepción original. La participación de naciones de Asia, África, América Latina y Oriente Medio refuerza la importancia del BRICS como una plataforma de cooperación global que ofrece una alternativa viable a las instituciones occidentales.
Estos países, muchos de los cuales enfrentan desafíos similares en términos de desarrollo económico, conflictos regionales y dependencia financiera, ven en los BRICS una oportunidad para colaborar en un marco de respeto mutuo y equidad.
Esta dinámica de cooperación, que se fortalece en cada cumbre, es una respuesta directa a las políticas hegemónicas de Occidente que, en muchos casos, han exacerbado las desigualdades y perpetuado los conflictos.
Los BRICS, al ofrecer una plataforma inclusiva y multipolar, se posicionan como un contrapeso frente a las instituciones dominadas por las potencias occidentales. En este sentido, la cumbre de Kazán marca un avance significativo hacia la creación de un nuevo orden internacional en el que las voces de los países en desarrollo sean escuchadas y respetadas.
La relevancia del formato BRICS Plus/Outreach radica en su capacidad para fomentar un diálogo abierto entre países de diferentes regiones, creando sinergias que pueden traducirse en proyectos concretos de cooperación en áreas como el comercio, la inversión, la infraestructura y la tecnología.
La Reforma del Sistema Financiero Internacional
Uno de los temas centrales de la cumbre de Kazán es la reforma del sistema financiero internacional, un aspecto clave en la agenda de los BRICS desde su fundación. El Nuevo Banco de Desarrollo (NBD) ha jugado un papel fundamental en esta estrategia, proporcionando financiamiento a proyectos de infraestructura en países miembros y asociados sin las restricciones y condiciones impuestas por instituciones como el FMI.
La cumbre de 2024 busca profundizar en esta vía, con la expansión del uso de monedas nacionales en los pagos mutuos, un paso crucial hacia la desdolarización del comercio internacional.
El creciente uso de monedas nacionales en las transacciones comerciales entre los países BRICS es una clara señal de su intención de reducir la dependencia del dólar estadounidense, que ha sido utilizado por Estados Unidos como un instrumento de presión política y económica.
Al promover la desdolarización, los BRICS buscan crear un sistema financiero más justo y equitativo, en el que los países puedan comerciar y cooperar sin temor a las sanciones o la manipulación de su economía por parte de actores externos.
Esta tendencia hacia la desdolarización también refleja un cambio más amplio en la economía global, donde las economías emergentes están asumiendo un papel cada vez más importante en la creación de un nuevo orden económico internacional.
La cumbre de Kazán, al reunir a líderes de los BRICS y de otros países en desarrollo, ofrece una oportunidad para avanzar en esta dirección, estableciendo un marco financiero alternativo que responda mejor a las necesidades y prioridades de los países en desarrollo.
El desarrollo de una moneda BRICS de la cual se ha venido discutiendo hace bastante tiempo, se está convirtiendo en una realidad cada vez más tangible y representa una amenaza directa al dominio global del dólar estadounidense.
Esta posible moneda común, diseñada para facilitar el comercio y las transacciones financieras entre los miembros del bloque por fuera del sistema SWIFT, no solo fortalecería la independencia económica de los países BRICS, sino que también aceleraría el proceso de desdolarización en muchas economías emergentes.
La creación de esta moneda sería un paso decisivo hacia la consolidación de un sistema financiero alternativo, permitiendo a las naciones BRICS reducir su dependencia del dólar en transacciones internacionales.
Este movimiento, unido al reciente abandono de Arabia Saudita del sistema de petrodólares, marcaría un golpe devastador al dólar estadounidense, que ha sostenido su hegemonía global a través del control del comercio de materias primas como el petróleo.
La posibilidad de una moneda BRICS representa una reconfiguración del sistema financiero internacional, donde el dólar podría perder su estatus como moneda de reserva mundial, debilitando la influencia económica y geopolítica de Estados Unidos en el largo plazo. Este avance coloca a los BRICS en el centro de un nuevo paradigma económico que busca mayor equidad y multilateralismo en el comercio global.
La Importancia Geopolítica de Rusia en el BRICS
Para Rusia, la cumbre del BRICS en Kazán es de suma importancia. En medio de las sanciones occidentales y los intentos de aislar a Moscú en la arena internacional, este evento demuestra que Rusia sigue siendo un actor geopolítico influyente.
La capacidad de Rusia para organizar una cumbre de tal magnitud, con la participación de líderes de casi 40 países, es una clara señal de que los intentos de Occidente por debilitar su posición global han fracasado.
La cumbre de Kazán también refuerza el papel de Rusia como un defensor del multilateralismo y la cooperación internacional en un mundo cada vez más polarizado. A medida que las tensiones entre Oriente y Occidente se intensifican, los BRICS ofrecen a Rusia una plataforma para fortalecer sus alianzas con otros países emergentes, muchos de los cuales enfrentan desafíos similares en sus relaciones con las potencias occidentales.
En este sentido, la cumbre de 2024 puede considerarse un éxito geopolítico para Rusia, que ha logrado consolidar su influencia en el bloque BRICS y más allá.
Además, la cumbre subraya la importancia de los BRICS como un bloque capaz de desafiar el orden hegemónico occidental. A medida que más países se alinean con este foro, se hace evidente que el sistema internacional está experimentando una transformación hacia un mundo multipolar, en el que el poder ya no está concentrado en manos de unas pocas potencias occidentales, sino distribuido entre una red más amplia de actores globales.
Análisis situacional en Asia Occidental
La Cumbre del BRICS en Kazán no solo abordará temas económicos y de cooperación multilateral, sino que también dedicará un espacio importante para analizar la crítica situación en Asia Occidental, en especial los recientes conflictos en Palestina y el Libano en medio de los ataques perpetrados por la entidad sionista.
La intensificación de las tensiones en la región, con enfrentamientos cada vez más violentos entre Israel y los países vecinos, preocupa a muchos de los países miembros del BRICS, que históricamente han abogado por la paz y la estabilidad en Asia Occidental. La región sigue siendo uno de los focos de inestabilidad más importantes del mundo, y el BRICS se posiciona como un bloque con capacidad para influir en la búsqueda de soluciones duraderas.
Uno de los principales puntos de interés de la cumbre será el análisis del impacto geopolítico y humanitario del conflicto, donde se explorará cómo las potencias occidentales, en su apoyo incondicional a Israel, han desestabilizado la región.
Los BRICS, en contraste, buscarán promover un enfoque más equilibrado y justo que apoye los derechos del pueblo palestino y explore salidas diplomáticas para reducir la violencia. Este bloque, que incluye potencias emergentes pretende ofrecer un contrapeso a las soluciones parciales y unilaterales que se han implementado en Asia Occidental, desafiando así el statu quo impuesto por los intereses occidentales.
Además, la discusión en Kazán sobre la situación en Asia Occidental también se centrará en las implicaciones para la seguridad global, considerando que los conflictos en esa región tienen repercusiones más amplias en términos de desplazamiento de refugiados, inestabilidad económica y extremismo.
Los BRICS buscarán resaltar la necesidad de una respuesta coordinada entre sus miembros para abordar no solo el conflicto en sí, sino también sus causas estructurales, incluyendo la ocupación, las desigualdades económicas y el papel de las potencias extranjeras que fomentan la división y la violencia.
La ambigüedad de Lula
Lula canceló su asistencia a la cumbre de Kazán.
Uno de los aspectos más llamativos de la Cumbre de los BRICS en Kazán es la ausencia del presidente brasileño Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, lo cual ha generado especulaciones y levantado preguntas sobre su verdadero compromiso con el desarrollo de un mundo multipolar. Si bien su ausencia oficial se debe a un supuesto accidente, es notorio que Lula ha estado enviando señales contradictorias dentro del bloque BRICS, particularmente en su retórica sobre el multilateralismo.
A diferencia de otros líderes del BRICS, que hablan abiertamente de la consolidación de un mundo multipolar, Lula sigue utilizando el lenguaje más alineado con la diplomacia occidental, enfocado en el «multilateralismo».
Esta diferencia de enfoque no es menor y revela su ambigüedad en apoyar completamente la agenda geopolítica del bloque.
Además, Lula ha sido criticado por sus movimientos en contra de Venezuela, lo que añade más tensión dentro del BRICS. Según recientes reportes, el presidente brasileño ha manifestado su oposición a la entrada de Venezuela en el bloque, basándose en el supuesto incumplimiento de acuerdos internacionales por parte de Caracas. Este posicionamiento va en contra de la visión de otros miembros del BRICS que ven en Venezuela un aliado clave en la lucha contra las hegemonías occidentales.
La decisión de Lula de sabotear los intentos de Venezuela para ingresar al BRICS, enviando diplomáticos para bloquear su candidatura, subraya su alineamiento con una visión occidentalizada y errónea de la situación geopolítica global y de las relaciones internacionales, alejándose del impulso transformador que otros líderes del bloque promueven en la construcción de un mundo verdaderamente multipolar.
Este análisis nos lleva a concluir que, aunque Brasil es un miembro fundacional del BRICS, la postura de Lula amenaza con generar fisuras internas en el bloque. En lugar de abogar por la expansión y la inclusión de países que compartan una visión contraria a las políticas hegemónicas de Occidente, Lula parece estar jugando una carta diplomática que favorece a las potencias tradicionales, lo cual podría entorpecer el proceso de consolidación del BRICS como un bloque verdaderamente multipolar.
Esta incongruencia entre sus discursos y acciones no solo genera incertidumbre, sino que podría obstaculizar los avances del BRICS en su camino hacia redefinir el orden mundial.
El Futuro de los BRICS y la Reconfiguración del Orden Global
A medida que el BRICS continúa expandiéndose y consolidando su influencia global, se hace evidente que este bloque jugará un papel clave en la reconfiguración del orden internacional en las próximas décadas.
La cumbre de Kazán es solo el principio de un proceso de transformación que podría redefinir las reglas del juego en áreas clave como la economía, la política, la seguridad y el desarrollo.
En este nuevo orden mundial, los BRICS tienen la oportunidad de liderar la creación de un sistema internacional más inclusivo y equitativo, en el que las voces de los países en desarrollo tengan un peso real en la toma de decisiones globales. La ampliación del bloque, el fortalecimiento de la cooperación financiera y el impulso hacia la desdolarización son pasos importantes en esta dirección.
La cumbre del BRICS en Kazán marca un antes y un después en la política global. A medida que el mundo se aleja del modelo unipolar impuesto por Occidente, los BRICS emergen como una alternativa viable, capaz de ofrecer un futuro más justo y equitativo para todos los países. En este sentido, la cumbre de 2024 será recordada como un momento decisivo en la construcción de un nuevo orden mundial multipolar, liderado por las economías emergentes y en desarrollo.
(*) Experto en Relaciones Internacionales y Experto en Análisis de Conflictos Internacionales, Diplomado en Geopolítica por la ESADE, Diplomado en Historia de Rusia y Geografía histórica rusa por la Universidad Estatal de Tomsk. Miembro del equipo de PIA Global.
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